September 17, 2026 — The global green coffee market is at a rare historical juncture. On the one hand, production in major origins such as Brazil and Vietnam is expected to rise sharply, pointing to a looser global supply picture. On the other, global ending stocks have fallen for a fifth consecutive year to their lowest level in years, while certified arabica inventories hit a 27-year low in early September. This paradox—ample production potential alongside tight deliverable supply—is shaping prices and trade flows in the green coffee market.

Brazil on Track for a Record Crop, Global Supply Seen Looser

As the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, Brazil is the main driver of this market shift. Conab estimates Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop at 66.7 million 60-kg bags, up 18% year on year, which would surpass the previous record of 63.08 million bags set in 2020. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service is even more bullish, forecasting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at 71.9 million bags, up 14.1%, with arabica output expected to rise 25% to 47.5 million bags.

The increase is mainly attributed to arabica trees entering the high-yield half of their biennial cycle, planted area expanding to 2.34 million hectares, and improved weather in key producing regions. Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-producing state, is expected to produce 33.4 million bags, up 29.8% and accounting for about half of the national crop.

Vietnam is also continuing its upward production trend. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), Vietnam exported nearly 1.7 million tonnes of coffee in the first eight months of 2026, generating more than US$6 billion in export value, with volumes up more than 10% year on year. Full-year production is expected to rise 8%–10%.

StoneX expects the global coffee market to move into a surplus of about 10 million bags in 2026, the largest in six years.

Prices Retreat Sharply, but Low Stocks Provide Support

Expectations of higher production in key origins have pushed coffee prices down from their earlier peaks in 2026. ICE New York arabica futures twice surged above $4.30/lb in February and October 2025—levels rarely seen in decades—before falling to around $3.45/lb by late January 2026, still well above historical averages.

Volatility has intensified in the second half of the year. In August, ICE arabica futures climbed to a 7.5-month high above 356 cents/lb, up more than 40% from their June low. The International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator price jumped 15.4% month on month in July to an average of 287.26 cents/lb, and stood at 287.29 cents in September. Rabobank expects ICE New York arabica futures to end 2026 in a range of $2.50–$3.00/lb.

It is worth noting that despite record production expectations, global coffee ending stocks are forecast to fall for a fifth consecutive year to just 20.148 million bags, the lowest in years. ICE certified arabica inventories fell to about 224,000 bags in early September, a 27-year low. “The market’s core issue has shifted from whether production is sufficient to whether deliverable supply is actually available,” an industry source said. With inventories so low, any weather or logistics disruption could trigger another sharp price swing.

Yunnan, China: From Volume Producer to Specialty Coffee Powerhouse

Yunnan stands out in the global green coffee landscape. In March 2026, Yunnan produced about 10,800 tonnes of green coffee beans, accounting for roughly 97.30% of China’s total, with an average market price of about RMB 45.6/kg. Pu’er ranked first with 4,600 tonnes, followed by Baoshan, Lincang, Dehong and other producing areas.

Even more noteworthy is Yunnan’s breakthrough in specialty coffee quality. At the 2026 Second Yunnan Treasure Coffee Green Bean Competition, a traditional washed Geisha from Gengxia Estate in Lincang won first place with 91.78 points. At the subsequent auction, Luckin Coffee bought the entire 45-kg lot for RMB 630,000, equivalent to RMB 14,000/kg, setting a new public auction record for Chinese green coffee beans. The previous edition’s top score was only 89.96 points, marking a leap in quality tier in just one year.

In terms of prices, amid global market volatility, Yunnan’s commercial green coffee averaged RMB 44.51/kg in the first half of 2026, down 16.40% from the previous period, while specialty green coffee averaged RMB 137.16/kg. The widening price gap between specialty and commercial beans reflects Yunnan’s accelerating shift from competing on volume to earning a premium on quality.

Super El Niño Risk Looms, Market Uncertainty Persists

Despite the improving supply outlook, climate risks cannot be ignored. Meteorological agencies predict a strong El Niño may emerge in the second half of 2026, and Brazilian industry groups fear a super El Niño could cut coffee production by as much as one-fifth. The USDA also notes that El Niño may reduce frost risk during Brazil’s winter, but excessive heat or irregular rainfall during flowering and early growth could still threaten 2027/28 production prospects.

Geopolitical risks, including conflict in the Middle East, also persist, while higher shipping costs and rising fuel and fertilizer prices continue to push up costs across the coffee supply chain. Industry observers say the global coffee market is at a critical inflection point, transitioning from “supply anxiety” to “looser supply.” Yet with low inventories, climate risks and cost pressures overlapping, price uncertainty has not been eliminated.